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Downing Street is planning a charm offensive against 64 Tory rebels it believes can be won over to avoid a no confidence vote in Boris Johnson.
Advisers have drawn up a list of wavering rebels to be invited to No10 for a love-bombing meeting led by the Prime Minister and Oliver Dowden, the Tory chairman.
The list features party grandees and frontbenchers including Theresa May, Julian Lewis, Tom Tugendhat and Julian Smith, and even a serving minister – Guy Opperman.
Although other MPs who have been publicly critical of Mr Johnson, including Andrew Bridgen, feature on the list, it does not include some of the most hardcore rebels, such as William Wragg.
An earlier attempted coup against Mr Johnson in January was organised largely by recently elected MPs in Red Wall constituencies, dubbed the “pork pie plotters”.
The informal group was named after the constituency of Alicia Kearns, a ringleader, who represents Melton Mowbray.
But The Telegraph understands Downing Street is now more concerned about the loyalty of many of the Prime Minister’s previous supporters, in Tory safe seats in the south of England.
Many of those on the list for this week’s charm offensive represent constituencies in the south-east and south-west of England.
Despite a “ceasefire” in calls for Mr Johnson’s resignation over the Platinum Jubilee weekend, more rebels are expected to submit letters early next week.
It is unknown exactly how many letters of no confidence have been sent to Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee, but many expect a confidence vote could be called on Monday or Tuesday.
Some senior Conservatives believe the target of 54 letters has already been reached, with one Tory source speculating that the total could already be as high as 70.
When the number is reached, Sir Graham will inform Mr Johnson, who is in control of the timeline of a vote.
The Telegraph understands that invitations for the meeting of wavering rebels in No10 have not yet been sent, with officials waiting to see whether the threshold has already been crossed before launching the charm offensive.
But those close to the Prime Minister are also concerned he could lose the confidence vote if it is held after two upcoming by-elections on June 23.
The Conservatives believe that Wakefield, a Red Wall seat won by the Tories in 2019, is likely to flip back to Labour.
But a senior party source said on Fridayt that campaigning was also “very, very hard going” in Tiverton and Homerton, where a by-election will be held on the same day to replace Neil Parish, who resigned after being caught watching pornography in the House of Commons chamber.
Mr Parish holds a 24,000 majority in the constituency, but the Conservatives are facing a challenge by the Liberal Democrats, who believe they could win it because of a collapse in Tory support in the “Blue Wall”.
Waiting to see by-election results
Several wavering Tory MPs who are privately critical of Mr Johnson say they are waiting to see the by-election results before deciding whether to attack him in public.
On Thursday, David Gauke, the former Conservative MP, said he believed a confidence vote was “imminent” and that should Mr Johnson lose it, Liz Truss is most likely to replace him.
But Mr Johnson’s supporters have said they not only have confidence in his leadership, but that a vote is unlikely to take place next week.
Dominic Raab, the Deputy Prime Minister, said the speculation was “Westminster froth”.
“Votes of no-confidence, leadership contests, is yet more Westminster talking to itself... and I think the vast majority of MPs recognise and agree with that,” he told the BBC this week.