Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 AM EDT Fri May 03 2024

Valid 12Z Fri May 03 2024 - 12Z Sun May 05 2024

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Western/Central Gulf Coast on Friday and the Southern Plains on Saturday...

...Heavy snow over the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains...

A front extending from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains will slowly
dissipate on Friday while a new front develops over parts of the Central
Plains/Great Basin. Upper-level energy over the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley and very moist air will aid in producing showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of southeastern Texas and
Louisiana. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Western/Central Gulf Coast through
Saturday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

In addition, some of the showers and thunderstorms will be severe. 
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains through Saturday
morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
Further, there will be an additional risk of hail two inches or greater
over the area.

Moreover, the developing front over western Kansas will cause a second
area of severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central High Plains
through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Furthermore, on Friday, showers and thunderstorms will develop along and
ahead of the front extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi
Valley. The showers and thunderstorms will march eastward into the Lower
Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast.

By Saturday, the new front will extend from the Upper Great Lakes to the
Southern High Plains. Moisture pooling along the boundary will create
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over central Texas and parts of
southeastern Oklahoma. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains from Saturday
into Sunday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Similarly, some of the showers and thunderstorms will be severe.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains from Saturday into
Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Moreover, there will be an additional risk of hail two inches
or greater over the area. The showers and thunderstorms will also develop
along and ahead of the front from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley.

A dissipating front will move over the Appalachians into the Southeast on
Saturday. Rain showers will develop over parts of the Northeast into the
Mid-Atlantic. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will extend from
parts of the Tennessee Valley to the Southeast. 

Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Northern Rockies will create light
snow over parts of the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains on
Friday, ending by Friday night. Moreover, a front over the Eastern Pacific
will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest overnight Friday, moving
inland to the Northern Intermountain Region and Southern California by
Sunday morning.

The system will produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest Coast
overnight Friday, expanding into Northern California by Saturday morning.
Light snow will develop over parts of the higher elevations of the Pacific
Northwest on Saturday. As the front moves inland, rain expands into
Southern California on Saturday afternoon. Heavy snow will develop over
parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains overnight Saturday into Sunday. By
Sunday morning, snow will move over parts of the Great Basin. 


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php